Recent data from Capriole Investments shows that long-term Bitcoin investors, commonly referred to as “OG whales”, have sold around $271 million worth of BTC on Sunday, the highest volume moved by this group in months.
This marks the largest surge in activity for whales since Jan. 10, when around $280 million was transferred out of wallets. This was followed by a 13% price adjustment, as Bitcoin declined from around $90, 000 to $78,700 in two weeks.
However, the current situation, contrary to January, when the demand of the buyers was quite low, indicates better liquidity and greater absorption capacity.
Even after the $271 million sell-off, on-chain metrics show that the demand of other categories of investors is readily taking in the supply.
Statistics indicate that long-term holders have made a net positive change in their position of 88,000 BTC as of April 9, compared to -152,000 BTC in February, when there was significant distribution pressure. This indicates a resurgence in accumulation among major players in the market.
Meanwhile, accumulation addresses, wallets that have a consistent history of buying BTC, have grown their total amount of BTC to 4.5 million in a matter of days.
The short-term Sharpe Ratio has declined to -40, historically, which corresponds to significant accumulation areas during the past cycles, such as in 2015, 2019, 2020, and 2023.
These readings generally occur when the risk-adjusted returns are low, but the potential for an increase in the long term is elevated.
Meanwhile, the buy-and-sell pressure delta (30-day) indicates that the market has already gone through a capitulation phase.
In the past, the extreme selling pressure pushed the metric to below -0.05, but now it is moving towards the neutral levels, which suggests forced selling has died, and slowly demand is rising.
Bitcoin is trading at $72,100 on Friday, with a neutral to slightly constructive tone as it sits above the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $70,609 but is trapped in a parallel channel.
The upper boundary of the channel is at $72,600, which serves as the immediate resistance and keeps the bulls at bay.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 59.2, well above the midline, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicates that bullish momentum is not yet strong enough to reverse the longer-term downtrend.