Oil prices have surged nearly 60% in a month amid escalating Middle East tensions, raising concerns about supply disruptions, inflationary pressures, and whether crude could reach the $130 mark in the near term.
Brent crude prices have jumped sharply by over 60% since the beginning of the US-Iran-Israel conflict. It has climbed to around $112 per barrel on Monday (March 23, 2026) from nearly $70 per barrel at the start of the conflict. The rally is associated with significant disruptions in global energy supply.
The surge in oil prices is driven by escalating tensions in West Asia, which have disrupted critical supply routes, particularly through the Strait of Hormuz. The crisis has also strained global liquefied natural gas (LNG) supplies. Strikes by Iran have damaged vital facilities, which have impacted nearly 17% of Qatar’s LNG export capacity.
In the past 30 days alone, crude oil prices have risen by about 56%, reflecting the severity of the ongoing supply shock. On Monday, US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) rose 52 cents to $98.75 per barrel, building on a 2.27% gain in the previous session.
The crude oil prices on Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX) remained in a positive trajectory, up 1.12% at Rs. 9,360 per barrel.
"The price when uncertainty peaks may be $135/bbl if the market required a risk premium to generate precautionary demand destruction offsetting supply destruction over six months in a risk scenario of 10 weeks of very low flows and (2 million barrels a day) of persistent production losses," according to Goldman Sachs.
On Saturday, US President Donald Trump warned that Iran’s power plants could be “obliterated” if the Strait of Hormuz was not fully reopened within 48 hours. In response, Iranian Minister Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf stated on X that key infrastructure and energy assets across the Middle East could face “irreversible destruction” if Iranian power plants were targeted.
Goldman Sachs has raised its 2026 average price forecast for Brent crude to $85 per barrel from $77. Its outlook for West Texas Intermediate (WTI) was also increased to $79 per barrel from $72. The firm also expects Brent crude to average $110 per barrel in March and April.
According to Anindya Banerjee, Head of Commodity and Currency Research, Kotak Securities, “Technically, Brent holding above $100 keeps the bullish structure intact, with $120 as a key resistance, above which prices could extend toward $130–135 in a continued escalation scenario.”