Oil prices climbed nearly 2% on Wednesday, April 1, extending gains after a strong March rally. Brent crude rose over 1.8% to $105.8 per barrel, while WTI advanced around 1.7% to $103. The rebound followed a 3.2% drop in the previous session, reflecting continued volatility in global energy markets.
Domestic markets mirrored the trend. MCX crude oil opened 1.34% higher at Rs 9,697 per barrel, tracking international benchmarks.
The shutdown of the Strait of Hormuz remains the central driver of elevated prices. The chokepoint handles nearly one-fifth of global crude flows. Disruptions have tightened supply expectations and kept oil above the $100 mark through most of March.
Restoring normal shipping may take time. Damage to key energy infrastructure has added to uncertainty, even as vessel movement shows early signs of recovery.
Recent remarks by US President Donald Trump signalled a possible de-escalation. Trump suggested US forces could withdraw from Iran within two to three weeks, though he maintained that a formal deal may not be necessary.
Mixed messaging has kept markets cautious. Military presence in the region continues to build, with another US carrier group heading toward the Middle East. Fears of escalation remain intact despite diplomatic signals.
The United Arab Emirates has reportedly urged the formation of a coalition to reopen the strait. China and Pakistan have jointly called for an immediate ceasefire and safe passage for shipping. Their proposal aims to stabilise the Gulf region and reduce supply risks.
The analysts from the study explain that their main worry stems from decreasing strategic reserves. The existing buffer capacity will create higher price shocks during ongoing disruptions. The current prices show a moderate positive outlook for diplomacy, while existing conflicts create potential for price increases.
The MCX technical indicators show resistance between Rs 9,900 and Rs 10,100, while support exists between Rs 8,610 and Rs 8,740. The markets display extreme sensitivity to news about geopolitical events during the upcoming period.