Bitcoin (BTC) has shown an upward trend in the fourth quarter with an average gain of 26% per year since 2019. Although it has been a tradition for the cryptocurrency to underperform in the third quarter of the year, it has produced positive results in the last three months of the year in the past few years.

For instance, in the year 2023, BTC experienced a major surge from $26,000 in October to $44,000 by the end of December. Nonetheless, not all the Q4 have been that good as generally Q4 has strong performance due to the bear market of 2022 which was triggered by the FTX crash.

Current Market Conditions and Technical Indicators

As the year 2024 approaches the fourth quarter, market experts are keen on several factors that could point another Q4 rally for Bitcoin. Another such metric is the Realized Price which is currently standing at $31,400. In the past, this level has served as both support and resistance for Bitcoin, and at the moment, it seems to be offering a stable base for the cryptocurrency.

Source: CoinMarketCap

At the press time, Bitcoin was trading at around $59,247, which is just below the 200-day Exponential Moving Average, meaning that there is still potential for the price to rise, however, if the BTC fails to break past this mark it might drop down to $57,818 or even $54,474.

Other technical metrics like Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) also point to a decline in buying pressure that might affect Bitcoin’s short-term rally. However, if Bitcoin is to trade 24% higher in the first few months of Q4, which some experts believe is possible, the price may hit $71,974. This potential gain, nevertheless, depends on the availability of adequate market conditions and capital flow.

Long-Term Predictions and Resistance Challenges

However, for the price of Bitcoin to continue rising, it has to break through the resistance level of $59,600. These analysts, including Titan of Crypto and Trader Tardigrade state that the Bitcoin price could be on the rise to $87,000 by early 2025 if it breaks through this level and gets in line with the power law corridor which models Bitcoin price with the time.

There is also the Gaussian channel, another technical indicator indicating that if Bitcoin holds the current support levels then a massive bull run could be imminent.

Source: X

Nevertheless, the recent challenges that Bitcoin has faced in trying to hold above $60,000, combined with a 9. 9% correction on August 29, has been a source of concern among traders. Some of the factors that have influenced the price ranges of the cryptocurrency include the movements of the U. S. Treasury yields and the sentiment of investors regarding the tech stock market performance especially that of Nvidia.

However, ‘whales’, those holding large amounts of Bitcoin have continued to buy more BTC with wallets holding between 10 to 10,000 BTC adding around 133,300 BTC in the last month.

BTC Accumulation Trends Among Major Holders

Data from Santiment and IntoTheBlock indicates that large Bitcoin holders have been increasing their positions, controlling about 66.6% of the total Bitcoin supply as of late August 2024. This accumulation trend suggests growing confidence in Bitcoin’s long-term prospects, despite short-term market fluctuations.

Meanwhile, smaller traders have shown less activity, with some reducing their holdings, possibly transferring them to larger players.

Analyst Ali Martinez has noted a potential bullish signal from the TD Sequential indicator, which has presented a buy signal on Bitcoin’s 12-hour chart. This could indicate that the recent downward trend is nearing exhaustion, potentially leading to a price rebound. Additionally, a notable decrease in Bitcoin exchange supply, with 40,000 BTC moving off exchanges in the past 48 hours, further supports the possibility of a near-term price recovery.