Despite ongoing geopolitical tensions and global trade disruptions, strong domestic demand, policy reforms, and healthy economic fundamentals are expected to keep India the fastest-growing major economy over the next three years.
The Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) interim Economic Outlook report forecasts that India's GDP will grow by 7.6% in 2025-26, 6.1% in 2026-27 and 6.4% in 2027-28. With the current growth rates, India is on track to outpace other key economies amidst global uncertainties.
The ongoing Middle East conflict has added pressure on the global economy, disrupting oil supplies and commodity trade, the OECD says. The report said disruptions to shipments via the Strait of Hormuz and damage to energy infrastructure have pushed energy prices higher, increasing inflationary pressures and weakening global demand.
Globally, GDP growth is expected to be 2.9% in 2026 and will rise slightly in 2027, as a result of investments in technology and easing tariff rates. However, the OECD warned that the projections are based on the assumption of ongoing short-term energy market volatility.
China's economy is expected to slow from its 5% growth in 2025 to 4.4% in 2026 and 4.3% in 2027 as consumer subsidies expire, property sector challenges persist, and investment growth moderates.
Addressing shareholders at ITC's Annual General Meeting, Chairman and Managing Director Sanjiv Puri said that the volatility in the global markets is "systemic" and not just temporary.
“The prolonged uncertainty arising from the West Asia crisis has severely impacted the global economy, threatening energy security and trade. Indeed, the multitude of events in the recent past only reinforce the fact that global volatility is no more sporadic; it is now systemic,” he said.
The vision of Aatmanirbhar Bharat and Viksit Bharat given by the Prime Minister, Narendra Modi, has given impetus to multidimensional policy interventions, which have helped India become the fastest-growing major economy, Puri said.
“The far-reaching measures announced in successive Budgets have provided strong foundations to unleash growth. India’s ascent is not merely about outpacing other large economies,” Puri added.
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Puri pointed out the financial development of ITC in the last five years despite challenging market conditions. The company's Net Segment Revenue (NSR) rose by Rs. 83,300 crore, recording a 10.7% CAGR, while EBITDA grew at a 9.7% CAGR.
He also noted that ITC has distributed nearly Rs. 85,000 crore in dividends over the last five years, generated around $6.5 billion in foreign exchange, and plans Rs. 20,000 crore in medium-term capital expenditure, with six new projects currently in the pipeline.