Solana surpasses BNB in the crypto market cap rankings and rises to the 4th rank
During a period of cryptocurrency market decline starting from March 14, SOL has demonstrated remarkable resilience by achieving new highs. Today, it has surged above US$200, surpassing BNB in terms of market capitalization.
Can SOL surpass Ethereum next?
With SOL’s market capitalization at US$90 billion compared to ETH’s US$435 billion, a substantial 483% increase would be necessary for SOL to outpace ETH, assuming ETH’s price remains constant. Currently, with a circulating supply slightly exceeding 443 million tokens, SOL would need to reach US$982 to exceed Ethereum’s market capitalization. However, while SOL’s supply has been steadily increasing over the past year, ETH’s supply has experienced a slight decrease. Consequently, a slightly lower price point for SOL could potentially surpass ETH.
In January 2023, SOL had a circulating supply of 370 million tokens, which had expanded to 432 million by January 2024, marking a 17% increase. If SOL’s supply continues to grow at the same rate in 2024, it will reach a circulating supply of 506 million tokens by January 2025. At this level, the price of SOL would need to reach US$860 to surpass ETH, assuming ETH’s price remains unchanged. This task presents a significant challenge, requiring a more than 300% increase in SOL’s price.
Can SOL Outperform Ethereum?
The SOL/ETH chart indicates that the ratio between SOL and Ethereum is approaching an all-time high, favoring SOL. The previous peak of 0.058 ETH per 1 SOL was achieved in November 2021. Notably, SOL is anticipated to achieve a new all-time high against the dollar in the near term. The wave count (white) suggests an imminent attainment of an all-time high. This analysis indicates that SOL is currently in the fifth and final wave of its upward trajectory that commenced in December 2022, with wave three having extended, and the sub-waves denoted in black.
If wave five also extends and matches the combined length of waves one and three, the SOL/ETH ratio could reach a new all-time high of 0.080, representing a surge of over 40% from the current level. Assuming ETH remains at US$3,600, this SOL/ETH ratio would correspond to a SOL price of US$290, significantly below the US$860 threshold required for SOL to surpass ETH. Depending on the supply of SOL, achieving a ratio close to 0.25 would be necessary to surpass ETH, considering that the supply of ETH is nearly four times smaller than that of SOL.
SOL Confronts a Formidable Challenge in Overtaking Ethereum
In summary, SOL has emerged as the top-performing Layer-1 token in this cycle, exhibiting a remarkable surge of over 1,300% since the beginning of 2023. Despite this impressive growth, the prospect of surpassing ETH in the immediate future appears unlikely, given the substantial distance it needs to cover and the indication that the SOL/ETH chart may be approaching the concluding phase of its upward trend.
