Bitcoin’s (BTC) price has been following the same trends seen in previous US election years, which could suggest a large shift in the near future. A crypto analyst has compared the situation when prices were flat and went down with the previous situations during the 2012, 2016, and 2020 elections.

Similar Patterns in Previous Election Years

Cryptocurrency analyst Matthew Hyland has pointed out that the current price trends of Bitcoin resemble those observed in the years of the US presidential elections. As per Hyland, the recent extended period of consolidation in Bitcoin and then the decline that took the cryptocurrency below $50,000 in early August is somewhat reminiscent of the price action leading into the US presidential elections in 2012, 2016, and 2020.

Over these years, Bitcoin went through a state of stagnancy, and only started to rise in the months after the election.

According to Hyland, if this pattern is to be followed, the current range may hold for a while longer before a possible break out in October or November. This concurs with the general finding that Bitcoin is prone to high fluctuations during the months preceding and following a U.S. presidential election.

Traders Express Varied Views on Bitcoin’s Near-Term Prospects

While there are some analysts who think that the BTC price will trade within the current range in the short term, there are others who fear more downside. A crypto trader with the pseudonym Rager posted on social media that the price of Bitcoin could potentially go lower before September ends.

Rager expects a minor bounce from the current low of $59,000 by the end of August and a possible fall as September approaches.

Furthermore, some market participants have suggested that Bitcoin may retest the $40,000 level, which it had briefly approached earlier this month. Michael van de Poppe of MN pointed out that if the $56,000 support level is broken, a retest of $48,000 or even new lows is possible.

Bitcoin Dominance in the Market Faces Uncertainty

With the price of Bitcoin still being under pressure, there have also been conversations regarding the market share of Bitcoin in the crypto space. Benjamin Cowen, a popular analyst, recently stated that he does not believe that BTC dominance will go back to the previous levels above 70%.

According to Cowen, Bitcoin’s dominance may likely get to 60% by the end of the year, but the crypto market is no longer only Bitcoin, other assets like Ethereum also play important role.

From Cowen’s perspective, the dominance may not be able to surpass certain highs mainly due to the increased adoption of other digital assets and stablecoins. Another trader, Kaleo, recently stated that Bitcoin dominance may have already peaked, meaning that the altcoin season has begun if Bitcoin dominance falls below 50%.

Market Sentiment and Technical Indicators Suggest Caution

The present price of Bitcoin has made the traders and the investors in the market to have a neutral view. Some people stated that the MVRV Momentum indicator supports the notion that Bitcoin is now in the bear market zone.

Consequently, the market value to realized value ratio has also gone bearish after the price of Bitcoin fell below the $61,500 level recently.

The one-year SMA of the MVRV Momentum indicator has been dwarfed by the current levels, which shows that many Bitcoin holders are currently in the red, and this may cause more selling pressure, as well as bearish trends.